2016 Trends presented by Chief Economist of CTA, Shawn DuBravac

2016 Trends presented by Chief Economist of CTA, Shawn DuBravac

January, CES 2016 – At the press day, a prelude for the Consumer Electronics Show 2016, Shawn DuBravac, Chief Economist of the Consumer Technology Association presented to the media, the sales and forecast trends for the consumer electronics industry for the coming year.  He presented there are five factors that were developing over the years and are now a reality of daily-life. These are: ubiquitous computing, cheap digital storage, connectivity, the proliferation of digital devices and the sensor’ization of tech. Coming to the CES ten or fifteen years ago the electronics industry was focused on what is technologically possible, how far we can push the technology boundaries.  In the last few months it has changed, and it shifting from what is possible to what is meaningful. In other words, it can be described as moving forward from solving one fragmented task to the meaningful solution for the problem. Once the technology foundations were set, the door was open to having an important and useful quality and purpose. That also got us to the Inflection Point for the Consumer Tech Industry. Now, 51% of the revenue in the consumer electronics marketplace is driven by 5 categories: smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktops and TV. They created a little over half of the revenue in the electronics industry. But that is going to change soon. Sometime next year the revenue generated by those 5 categories will be less than half because other categories are growing on fast pace.

The Chief Economist announced the new trends that will be leading the industry in 2016. They are: Ambient Sensing, Aggregated Learning and Maturing of Nascent Ecosystems.

The Ambient Sensing trend started in early 2014 when Mimo Smart baby breathing and activity monitor was announced at CES. Mimo allows real-time monitoring of the sleeping baby by sending a message right on the phone, no matter where the parent is. It sends an alert message when the factors such as breathing, body position or temperature change. It is an example of capturing the environment of the baby sleeping, measuring it and notifying the parents. At CES 2016 as indication of more meaningful use we have: Ecoisme, a single device to track the energy usage of each individual appliance or gadget at home, DietSensor, a nutrition coach for food and Sensum, a software platform for measuring emotions and behaviors responds. This is the direction that the industry is heading.

The second trend stated by DuBravac was Aggregated Learning. The last year it was predictive customization of Netflix and its redefining recommendation. The other example of Aggregated Learning is how quickly technology advanced. It can be shown by following the history of word error rate in speech recognition. In 1995 it was almost 100%, in 2013 it dropped to 23%, and to 5% in 2015. Within 18 months the improvement that was made was phenomenal from 23% to 5%. It was possible by sharing the information in different platforms. In 2016 the picture of Aggregated Learning is the “roadway” to define what the Autonomous Vehicles are? By now Google Autonomous Cars have been driven over 1.6 million kilometers. Soon all information will be shared with all fleet of the vehicle and stop signs and traffic lights. Chief Economist pointed out 5 levels of Automation in cars: LO – No-Automation, L1 Function-specific Automation, L2 Combined Function Automation, L3 Limited Self-Driving Automation and L4 Full Self-Driving Automation. DuBravac predicted we will see full autonomous vehicles by 2020, with 1 million sold by 2030. By 2045 half of the cars sold may be fully autonomous.

The third trend Maturing of Nascent Ecosystems, is associated with the categories that growing on fast pace such as Virtual Reality, Wearables and Drones. With several notable VR headsets as such Ricoh Theta and the Panono 360 camera, coming to market in 2016, CTA expects unit sales to increase by 500 percent over the last year, to reach 1.2 million units sold. Total revenue is projected to reach $540 million, a 440% increase. Wearables that are led by the popularity of Fitness Activity Trackers and Smart Watches, unit sales among all wearables in 2016 are forecast to reach 38.4 million units. Fitness activity trackers volumes will hit 17.4 million units in 2016, a 12% increase in one year, with revenue reaching $1.3 billion. Smart Watches are expected to increase 28% to 13.6 million units sold, earning $3.7 billion in revenue, and an increase of 22%. In this category in 2016 we will see Reliefband, Oara Ring,  Lumiwave, Ombra and hexoskin, that making their splash at CES. The total forecast for 2016 drone sales tops 2.8 million units, up to 149% from 2015, and $953 million in shipment revenues (a 115% increase from last year). In that category CES 2016 will show Onagofly and Fleye.

The Chief Economist of CTA also presented the forecast sales for other categories such as 4K TV and 3D Printers. After a banner year of sales growth in 2015 that saw LCD TV shipments climb 10% to top 39 million units, the TV market should reach a steady state in 2016. CTA projects revenues will reach $19 billion for all TV sets and displays in 2016, on par with 2015, as volumes drop 1% just under 40 million units. 2016 will be a phenomenal year for 4K Ultra High-Definition (UHD) TVs, driven in part by the market introduction of next-generation technologies, with shipment of 4K UHD displays projected to reach 13 million units (an 83% increase), CTA expects revenue from 4K UHD displays in 2016 to top $10 billion, marking a 65% increase. The expanding diversity of 3D Printing capabilities will drive the sector’s growth in 2016. CTA expects 3D printer sales to increase 64% from 2015, to reach 179 thousand units sold, with total revenue of $152 million, a 38% increase. CTA expects the Smart Homes technology category, including smart thermostats, smart smoke and CO2 detectors, IP/Wi-Fi cameras, smart locks, smart home systems, and smart switches, dimmers and outlets to reach 8.9 million units sold in 2016, a 21 % increase, with $1.2 billion in revenue.

It is supposed to be another great year for consumer electronics industry.

Technology World Tour by Steve Koenig from CTA

Technology World Tour by Steve Koenig from CTA

January, CES 2016 – At the press event on January 4, Steve Koenig, Senior Director, Market Research presented Technology World Tour. Every year GfK and CTA announced Global Consumer Technology Spending Forecasts based on statistics from more than 340,000 retail stores in 80 countries. The analysis consider the geographical and financial aspects in electronics industry with separate numbers for mature (North America, Western Europe and developed APAC) and developing (Central/Eastern Europe, latin America, Emerging APAC, Middle East/Africa) markets.

How the Global Market 2016 looks like? Are Global technology spending on track?

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Steve Koenig mentioned few reasons responsible for declining spending: Strong Dollar, that is unfavorable to conversion of global currencies; ASPs trending lower in categories with big impact such as smartphones (-7%), TV (-2%) and laptops (-4%); Global unit growth is moderate or negative in key sectors such as TV (1%), smartphones (8%), laptops (-3%) and tablets (-8%); Economic weakness in several emerging markets such as Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe; finally the China slowdown, the country is transitioning to consumption/services that has spillover effect on commodity dependent economies.

In the Global Tech Industry the new/nascent categories are playing bigger role in global growth. They are Smart Home, Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Drones, 3D Printing, Digital Health Devices, Automotive and Robotics.

Steve Koenig, who like to refer the 7 best tech categories (tablets, laptops, cellphones, TV, smartphones, desktops and cameras) as Magnificent Seven presented their strength for 2016 versus the last year. It seems like they are losing their impact. In 2015 their revenue share was 79%, reaching $761 billion. It 2016 it is 78% and $740 million accordingly.

 

 

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According to Koenig, the Global Sales by Product similar like in 2014 and 2015, remains mixed in 2016.

 

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The Met Life: Georges Bizet’s The Pearl Fishers

The Met Life: Georges Bizet’s The Pearl Fishers

Georges Bizet (1838-1875) the renowned French composer best known for his ground-breaking opera Carmen which premiered in Paris in1875 and is indisputably one of the most popular operas of all time.

Exactly three months after it’s opening night however, and on his sixth wedding anniversary,  Bizet died of a heart attack at the age of 36 as a result of a chill he contracted after a swimming competition.   Unfortunately, Carmen had not been well received initially since it was the first time a major opera realistically depicted everyday characters in leading roles rather than the traditional subject matter featuring the lives of royalty or mythological figures.  Carmen herself, for example, is a cigarette-smoking, Gypsy factory worker of questionable virtue and this definitely did not set well with the opera-going public of the time.

Twelve years prior to Carmen in 1863, Bizet had composed another opera, Les Pecheurs de Perles (“The Pearl Fishers”), traditionally considered to be a minor effort and roundly criticized for it’s poor libretto and lack of any rousing arias while acknowledging adequate choric offerings.  And although these shortcomings seem to hold true to this day, nonetheless, New York’s Metropolitan Opera succeeded in staging a captivating and often scenically stunning production viewed by thousands of opera lovers in neighborhood theaters throughout the U.S. thanks to Fathom Events and The Met: Live in HD series, currently celebrating it’s 10th Anniversary.

The scene is a pearl-diving village in the Far East, presumably Sri Lanka, and  the plot deals with Leila, a Hindu virgin priestess and two men Zurga and Nadir who are vying for her affections.  In this traditional love triangle, Nadir, played by tenor Matthew Polenzani, triumphs and he and Leila, depicted my mezzo soprano Diana Damrau, escape a fated death as baritone Mariusz Kwiecien as the vengeful Zurga, burns down the village in a rage of jealous spite.

All of the players perform credibly, perfectly vocalizing Bizet’s Romantically derivative yet  rather engaging score, but the scene-stealer is the scenic values themselves.  The set is appropriately functional and admirably serves the demands of the production, but the real spectacle is the stunning computer generated projections thanks to the magical wizardry of 59 Productions who are credited with production design.  The opening scene for example is an underwater projection which takes up the entire proscenium of the Met stage and superimposed on the screen are two pearl fishers, actually ballet dancers supported by invisible cables a la Cirque de Soleil, who appear to be rhythmically swimming in a deep blue “ocean,’ complete with bubbles and rays of sunlight streaming through it’s depths.  Sergei Diaghilev, the iconic Russian empresario who in 1909 founded the Ballets Ruses, was once asked by a set designer what he wanted by way of scenery, to which Diaghilev replied, “Astonish me!”  and that’s exactly what the production design team succeeded in doing in this captivating production.  We were astonished!

On balance, a valuable and entertaining theatrical experience  and an opportunity to witness a pearl of an opera delicately extracted from an oyster shell of near oblivion  in a lovely offering by The Met.  Thank you and Bravo!

 

by Lidia Paulinska and Hugh McMahon

Trusted Computing Group’s view on SEDs

Trusted Computing Group’s view on SEDs

January, 2016, Storage Visions – Mark Schiller is Executive Director of Trusted Computing Group, which provides security standards to the computing industry. The group is a collection of over 100 partners that include commercial companies, government participation, academia and experts in the field of security and privacy. Schiller covered the challenges facing security and protection of stored content, and shared his view on SEDs (Self Encrypting Drives).

Why Self-Encrypting Drives?

There are world-wide financial and legal consequences for data loss and data breeches and the occurrence of such events have been increasing. SEDs create a layer of protection from that happening as well as providing compliance with the safe harbor laws in the most of the US and EU for loss of devices that are secured with encrypted data. Schiller spoke after Michael Willett underlined the main reason of using SEDs.  The SEDs have a lower overhead for encryption and decryption than software encryption. Another feature is SEDs allow for a fast crypto-erase that sanitizes drive data before drive replacement, repair, de-commissioning, re-purposing and end of life.

He summarized the talk with SSDs are the new standard for fast storage media. In combination with the NVMe storage interface, they are driving higher performance and lower latency solutions, meaning data safety can be realized without the negative impact of software encryption on system performance.

More information about Trusted Computing Group at www.drivetrust.com

 

 

 

Self Encrypting Drives are becoming universal

Self Encrypting Drives are becoming universal

January, Storage Visions – Michael Willett from Bright Plaza moderated the Storage Vision’s panel discussion about security and protection.  He stated that the idea of encryption being built into the hardware is becoming universal.  There are many benefits leaning on the concept of Hardware-based Self-Encryption being a better option over Software-based Encryption. First is the transparency and easy management. SEDs (Self Encrypting Drives) come from the factory with an encryption key already generated so there is no encrypting key to manage. Second, the Life-cycle cost. In the software case, it is an on-going cost versus pro-rated into the initial drive for SED. Third is disposal or re-purposing cost for the drive.  It is easy to erase the on-board encryption key for SEDs providing safe disposal. There is also no problem with re-encryption as there is no need to ever re-encrypt the data. The last benefits are in (A) performance: there is no degradation in SED performance;  (B) standardization: the entire HDD industry is building to the TCG/SED specifications, and finally (C) there is no interference with upstream processes or use.

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The session covered the challenges facing security and protection of stored content, including content on mobile devices as well as at home and in the cloud. It explored the reasons why OPAL based client encrypted storage is a key factor in data security, Standardized security products are making data security easier than ever while enabling desired content sharing.