January 2017 – How was the world of technology in 2016? – talk with the experts from San Francisco Bay area: Kevin Krewell, Principal Analyst of Tirias Research, Rodney Thayer, Cybersecurity Consultant and Pallab Chatterjee, Editor in Chief Media & Entertainment Technologies.
Autonomous vehicles made a lot of progress this year, more than anticipated – stated Kevin Krewell. The amount of effort and engineering going into driverless cars was remarkable. Typically, cars are a slow moving industry, taking 5+ years to qualify an equipment part going into a vehicle. But now things have changed and car manufactures are being blamed for not moving fast enough. Companies, such as, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Intel, NXP and others have been investing heavily to bring autonomous vehicles to the market in the next few years. Elon Musk and Tesla have done the most to promote this change. Musk broke the barrier by having pre-installed software built into the Tesla vehicles, like he knew it was going to get better over time. Car manufacturers are not just making cars any more, but rather building a software platform – Rodney Thayer.
“All our knowledge begins with the senses”- declared 18th century philosopher Immanuel Kant.
The challenge with autonomous cars is that they are cameras based – added Pallab Chatterjee. Radar, lidar, sonar or real cameras are like senses of a vehicle. They are figuring things out but they create a huge amount of data. The flood of data is here and more is coming. By 2020, the average internet user will create 1.5GB of traffic per day, smart hospital – 3.000 GB per day, autonomous vehicle – 4.000 GB each per day, airplane – 40.000 GB per day and smart factory – 1.000.000 per day.
The biggest surprise that came up in 2016?
That VR came back again was a surprise to Pallab Chatterjee. It is like 3D, every 10-15 years people forget that it is not technology, it is what content is available and how the companies plan to monetize it. That was one of the problems with 3D. It was rushed to the market because the technology was available but people said – there was nothing to watch because the content was made in a rush and it was of poor quality and stories. We see that scenario right now. The only good content for VR is in games on very expensive platforms but it is not mass market. The VR devices for mass market are not professionally created and a content is poor and people get dizzy and nauseous.
For Kevin Krewell, the biggest surprise in 2016 was how many big money acquisitions were taking place. It is not that big companies are buying small companies but big companies are buying big companies. Intel buying Altera last year was a starting point. NXP bought Freescale and now Qualcomm is buying NXP that just bought Freescale, and Samsung buying Harman Group.
The overriding challenge in 2016 was security and privacy. A number of high level intrusions and data breaches took place, and as the year ends, more will come to light. The risks are at all levels, individuals, companies, organizations, even standard internet providers and countries – the cybersecurity threats are guiding the way business was done in 2016 and the new ways it will be done in 2017 according to Rodney.
Here is the full episode that was aired at Bay area Comcast tv in December:
January, CES 2016 – At the press day, a prelude for the Consumer Electronics Show 2016, Shawn DuBravac, Chief Economist of the Consumer Technology Association presented to the media, the sales and forecast trends for the consumer electronics industry for the coming year. He presented there are five factors that were developing over the years and are now a reality of daily-life. These are: ubiquitous computing, cheap digital storage, connectivity, the proliferation of digital devices and the sensor’ization of tech. Coming to the CES ten or fifteen years ago the electronics industry was focused on what is technologically possible, how far we can push the technology boundaries. In the last few months it has changed, and it shifting from what is possible to what is meaningful. In other words, it can be described as moving forward from solving one fragmented task to the meaningful solution for the problem. Once the technology foundations were set, the door was open to having an important and useful quality and purpose. That also got us to the Inflection Point for the Consumer Tech Industry. Now, 51% of the revenue in the consumer electronics marketplace is driven by 5 categories: smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktops and TV. They created a little over half of the revenue in the electronics industry. But that is going to change soon. Sometime next year the revenue generated by those 5 categories will be less than half because other categories are growing on fast pace.
The Chief Economist announced the new trends that will be leading the industry in 2016. They are: Ambient Sensing, Aggregated Learning and Maturing of Nascent Ecosystems.
The Ambient Sensing trend started in early 2014 when Mimo Smart baby breathing and activity monitor was announced at CES. Mimo allows real-time monitoring of the sleeping baby by sending a message right on the phone, no matter where the parent is. It sends an alert message when the factors such as breathing, body position or temperature change. It is an example of capturing the environment of the baby sleeping, measuring it and notifying the parents. At CES 2016 as indication of more meaningful use we have: Ecoisme, a single device to track the energy usage of each individual appliance or gadget at home, DietSensor, a nutrition coach for food and Sensum, a software platform for measuring emotions and behaviors responds. This is the direction that the industry is heading.
The second trend stated by DuBravac was Aggregated Learning. The last year it was predictive customization of Netflix and its redefining recommendation. The other example of Aggregated Learning is how quickly technology advanced. It can be shown by following the history of word error rate in speech recognition. In 1995 it was almost 100%, in 2013 it dropped to 23%, and to 5% in 2015. Within 18 months the improvement that was made was phenomenal from 23% to 5%. It was possible by sharing the information in different platforms. In 2016 the picture of Aggregated Learning is the “roadway” to define what the Autonomous Vehicles are? By now Google Autonomous Cars have been driven over 1.6 million kilometers. Soon all information will be shared with all fleet of the vehicle and stop signs and traffic lights. Chief Economist pointed out 5 levels of Automation in cars: LO – No-Automation, L1 Function-specific Automation, L2 Combined Function Automation, L3 Limited Self-Driving Automation and L4 Full Self-Driving Automation. DuBravac predicted we will see full autonomous vehicles by 2020, with 1 million sold by 2030. By 2045 half of the cars sold may be fully autonomous.
The third trend Maturing of Nascent Ecosystems, is associated with the categories that growing on fast pace such as Virtual Reality, Wearables and Drones. With several notable VR headsets as such Ricoh Theta and the Panono 360 camera, coming to market in 2016, CTA expects unit sales to increase by 500 percent over the last year, to reach 1.2 million units sold. Total revenue is projected to reach $540 million, a 440% increase. Wearables that are led by the popularity of Fitness Activity Trackers and Smart Watches, unit sales among all wearables in 2016 are forecast to reach 38.4 million units. Fitness activity trackers volumes will hit 17.4 million units in 2016, a 12% increase in one year, with revenue reaching $1.3 billion. Smart Watches are expected to increase 28% to 13.6 million units sold, earning $3.7 billion in revenue, and an increase of 22%. In this category in 2016 we will see Reliefband, Oara Ring, Lumiwave, Ombra and hexoskin, that making their splash at CES. The total forecast for 2016 drone sales tops 2.8 million units, up to 149% from 2015, and $953 million in shipment revenues (a 115% increase from last year). In that category CES 2016 will show Onagofly and Fleye.
The Chief Economist of CTA also presented the forecast sales for other categories such as 4K TV and 3D Printers. After a banner year of sales growth in 2015 that saw LCD TV shipments climb 10% to top 39 million units, the TV market should reach a steady state in 2016. CTA projects revenues will reach $19 billion for all TV sets and displays in 2016, on par with 2015, as volumes drop 1% just under 40 million units. 2016 will be a phenomenal year for 4K Ultra High-Definition (UHD) TVs, driven in part by the market introduction of next-generation technologies, with shipment of 4K UHD displays projected to reach 13 million units (an 83% increase), CTA expects revenue from 4K UHD displays in 2016 to top $10 billion, marking a 65% increase. The expanding diversity of 3D Printing capabilities will drive the sector’s growth in 2016. CTA expects 3D printer sales to increase 64% from 2015, to reach 179 thousand units sold, with total revenue of $152 million, a 38% increase. CTA expects the Smart Homes technology category, including smart thermostats, smart smoke and CO2 detectors, IP/Wi-Fi cameras, smart locks, smart home systems, and smart switches, dimmers and outlets to reach 8.9 million units sold in 2016, a 21 % increase, with $1.2 billion in revenue.
It is supposed to be another great year for consumer electronics industry.
